@Kaloudz Lol us Brits have always had a bit of a tendency to think we can set the rules for the whole world - can't think when it came from!
In seriousness, I do think if the EU rules in favour the UK government will negotiate - get a sticking plaster "extra remedy" which gives them a fig leaf to overrule the CMA and show the UK is competitive and "better than the EU for business".
Particularly given we had the head of Unipart saying the USA has great green subsidies and the EU is about to have some, and the UK is quoted as saying "we're waiting to see what the EU does"
@Rmg0731 That's not correct, it's speculation without any evidence.
The only bit the CMA mentioned was 100% of in-game purchases as obviously, it's streaming so likely going via Microsoft's services rather than the streamer building their own.
But the CMA didn't expand upon whether Microsoft will provide a portal for the streaming platform to review this purchases and claim a share - which is completely possible with the metadata around the stream - or if the streamer does actually have a payments system that they could use that instead.
Instead, they just made an assumption - and forgot about the fact the streaming company may be getting the game to stream for free or very cheap in return too, as remember they're charging their customers to access Xbox games!
The providers themselves wouldn't be pushing Microsoft's message like this if they weren't likely going to make money out of it - whether by improving their catalogue or by making a cut of transactions - so to suggest Microsoft are screwing over these cloud providers is frankly libellous
Microsoft helped defend Ukraine against a wave of Russian cyberattacks in the first few days of the war, so to be honest I'd have been surprised if they did rule against them.
Ignoring all that though, I'm kind of hoping something can be done and this deal goes through as I suspect MS really have put all their eggs in this basket - as even if Xbox start to play Sony's tactics I imagine most games for the next year or two are locked down already both platform and marketing wise.
So we could be well over halfway through this generation before we really start to see proper competition - either from this takeover (given Sony still have some marketing time left with Activision) or from Xbox's fightback - and that might be too late particularly given the latest PlayStation 5 sales when Xbox appears to be struggling with stock.
Sony spent $15m on adverts ahead of the PS5 launch, Xbox spent around $5m - I know marketing isn't everything as Xbox spent more ahead of the PS4 / Xbox One launches, but that time was to try and correct a major screw-up.
Once this takeover completes or dies completely, which we'll hopefully know within the month once we get the EU ruling (as the UK will likely follow them as Sunak will hate it if the EU seem more competitive), Xbox come out hard with marketing as it just seems to be Sony wall-to-wall at the moment
@Titntin It's not really Pure's fault - PlayStation has more games being released and PushSquare are the bigger site so get more exclusive interviews and review codes etc, and have more staff to write content.
Pure will get there, particularly if Xbox starts to win back market share as they'll likely then get more staff.
As it is, they have to prioritise stories that will get the most interaction - but they still do a good job I think, and there's still plenty of gaming news it's just not getting as much attention as this drama
@Belkan Which is ridiculous as Sawyer has said Pentiment would never have been made without Game Pass, and many indies say Game Pass lets users play their games without risk.
I'm a good example of it - I used to be AAA games only, but now I play many indies particularly on Game Pass, and have bought many of my favourites so I can keep them
@WallyWest They probably don't need to leave the UK, the government has been worried enough by Microsoft's angry statement about the UK being a bad place to do business that they've said they'll talk to MS regarding ABK:
Given under UK competition law ministers can choose to override the CMA (either by allowing or blocking) in matters of economic importance, national security or national interests, Sunak may decide if the EU rules in favour of the deal he doesn't want to look anti-competitive.
Not guaranteed by a long shot, and if it drags on I'd rather it fell at the EU hurdle and MS starts to play Sony's game - but there is a possibility.
@Sebatrox Yep combine that with the quote from Windows Central from the UK government about engaging with Microsoft, and there does appear to an angle, particularly if the EU approved as Sunak doesn't want to appear anti-competitive in comparison
"UPDATE: A spokesperson for the UK Prime Minister says that Microsoft's comments about the country's tech business viability was "wrong," and said it would engage Microsoft on the ABK issue."
Suggests the UK government is at least willing to talk to Microsoft - it's local elections next week and the Tories really don't want to be seen as anti-business / a bad place to do business so will probably talk.
Technically, the prime minister can override the CMA (it's written into the recent competition update a few years back) so there's a chance a negotiation takes place at the highest levels - but I suspect it'll hinge on EU approval first as the UK won't want to give too much ground before then if they don't need to.
If it goes ahead, this would definitely be my preferred approach - reasonably quick approval in EU and the USA court case, and negotiated settlement in the UK.
If it doesn't, I'd prefer it to die at the EU approval stage so we can move on - this dragging on for years is bad for everyone
@StrawberryWave Yes, of a market that has at most 10k concurrent users in the UK, given the figures from both the CMA and Microsoft (see Jez Corden / Windows Central for the full details).
So that 60% market share isn't exactly an insurmountable lead - I've no doubt if Sony took cloud seriously they could easily overtake those numbers, making the CMA's argument a joke
@Kaloudz Yep it really does show that when some of us pop onto the cloud to do a Rewards thing or we try a game out on it, we probably are some of the few gamers actually using it.
In fact, between this and the Microsoft Rewards subreddit, I wouldn't be surprised if we all make up like 25% of the actual users it's so low!
Maybe once they've got the content and are happy the internet in many countries is good enough they'll advertise it more heavily and so get the gamers in...
@Kaloudz Agreed - I think if either the FTC court case gets off to a bad start or the EU rejects it, this is dead.
If not, then yes already some US lawyers are pointing out carve-outs for the UK that could be done, despite what the CMA head is saying in the BBC News article "this blocks it for the whole world".
To be honest, her arrogance about that does almost make me want them to do a carve-out and prove her wrong.
But for the most part, I'm worried if this rumbles on - if carve-outs / appeals can be done within months and the USA / EU approve then I'm happy for them to proceed.
If however the deal gets held up in full for years while they appeal the CMA, then I'd rather the EU just reject it and Xbox start Plan B - as during the challenge if Xbox stays as quiet as it has for the last year by the end the gap would be so big not even buying Take Two and EA too would make up the difference.
Given the rhetoric today I'm suspecting "mean and green" might be an option for Xbox as Microsoft seem willing to play hard ball - so while @Fiendish-Beaver is right about the cost of exclusivity for Xbox vs PS I do think MS might bankroll a few headline ones.
Combine that with killing Gold, some marketing deals and smaller purchases - particularly studios they're already very close with and who are doing projects for them like IOI and Asobo - along with some big Game Pass additions and offers on consoles then we could see Xbox finally start to close the gap...
@Stocksy I still think Sainsbury's and Asda not merging was one of the worst decisions the CMA ever made.
Asda is now leveraged to the hilt with prices going up far faster than Tesco or Sainsbury's (in my experience).
Sainsbury's + Asda would have had the might to take on Tesco and led to a proper price war that might have helped us through all this inflation.
So yes I was there with you thinking there's no way they'd block that!
With regards to the rest, I think it's just wishful thinking as we don't have an idea what on earth Xbox's next move is without this as they've been so quiet and most games just seem to keep getting pushed back - I personally wouldn't mind the EU killing the deal so we can move on and start with "mean and green" hopefully, rather than years of legal wrangling that starve Xbox Game Studios of attention
@ShadowofTwilight30 Actually the Appeals Court has overruled the CMA before, in the case of MyFerryLink.
That case took 3 years of legal battles though, with it due to go to the Supreme Court before EuroTunnel couldn't be bothered as the ferry leases were due to expire by then anyway.
So unless Microsoft do some clever carve-out or got an emergency hearing, I don't think any of us really want it to go "all the way" as if Xbox carried on being "2022 Xbox" for 3 more years they will lose this generation harder than the last...
@Kienda Not so much personal grievance, as more a dislike of large US corporations recently (don't think they've approved anything in recent years for one) and likely being quite agreeable to the arguments Sony was putting forth.
The CMA aren't gamers, but they likely have children / grandchildren who are - and Sony have the market pretty much captured in the UK so they'll likely have only heard that the public don't want this deal to go ahead, without realising how dominant Sony actually is.
With regards to remedies, they would have been feeding back to Microsoft to offer them - they now say none were sufficient, but more importantly their decision makes clear no remedy would be sufficient as it would require deals with companies that don't even exist yet as they don't know the form cloud gaming will eventually take.
If Microsoft do get approval by the EU next month, and then win against the FTC it's likely they will fight this all the way - they may choose to bypass the CAT if they think the CMA are a lost cause and go straight to the Appeals Court which could speed things up.
But overall it's likely to take at least an extra year - so failing some clever carve-out of the UK or getting an emergency injunction / court hearing it could lead to another year of meek and weak Xbox with no marketing or messaging.
So part of me is now hoping the EU say no and Microsoft instead get mean and green, literally
@Kienda The main block wasn't due to existing cloud providers, it was because of "those that may enter the market in the future, so the rules aren't already defined".
So not anyone Microsoft can make a deal with as the companies may not even exist yet.
It strikes me as very much a way to justify the decision they wanted to make, after Microsoft pointed out the CMA's calculation error which made their PlayStation harm theory null and void...
@AverageGamer Ah OK my bad, I knew they had them for a while including Death Stranding as Sony blocked them working on the Edge browser on Xbox - didn't realise they'd since removed them completely.
It actually makes the CMA's argument even more laughable in that case then
@Sol4ris I think the CMA have shown that even if Nintendo and Sony used their exclusives to take a majority of the cloud market, the CMA would talk about the "nascent quantum computing" or "fridge-based OS game ecosystem" to block any big mergers...
I do agree though, I'm kinda now hoping the EU says no or they get an injunction against the CMA for now, as the last thing Xbox needs is another year of dead marketing and activity because they're too busy appearing weak and meek to regulators.
I think that would kill Xbox to a level even the Activision takeover wouldn't save it.
So unless something can be sorted quickly (unlikely) I'd rather they now get aggressive and push their internal studios a bit harder (and properly project manage them), buy smaller developers with potential or existing relationships like IOI and Asobo, and snap up marketing and exclusivity deals...
@StrawberryWave I'd argue tech wise (and possibly market share wise) Nvidia is the market leader in cloud.
They offer 4k streaming to their paying customers and can offer a top-end graphics card for ray tracing.
Ironically, they'd have been the best placed if this deal went through as they'd have their current offering which includes Sony's PC games and Xbox's PC games, and added Activision's
It might make Xbox more popular with casual gamers at least!
I suspect the more dedicated players would say that their PS5 hitting them in the groin daily is just the price worth paying for the honour of being a PlayStation customer...
@Fiendish-Beaver I don't see MS throwing in the towel, but I do see the danger of the death spiral you describe.
The Xbox One generation was a fiasco after the successful 360 one, and the spending on the One X and Game Pass seemed to be paying off, and this new generation looked bright.
Bethesda was a good acquisition, didn't take too long and while there were some misses like Halo being so late it appeared things were mostly OK.
Then this acquisition was announced and we hit major delays with first party games resulting in the dearth of big games last year - it appeared management was failing to control development, and was distracted by ABK, while the delays made Game Pass less appealing as there just wasn't much to replace the missing first party items.
It now feels like it goes one of two ways - either this acquisition goes through and if it doesn't MS comes out fighting hard, or Xbox enters a death spiral.
Sony have conditioned their more dedicated players to be a cult similar to Apple's, that paying such high prices for their hardware and software is an honour - and only poor people go elsewhere.
Those players are the ones that Game Pass works for, as you need to play regularly for it to save money compared to buying FIFA or COD once a year - but we're probably starting to reach a limit on how many more can be pulled over given PS Plus new tiers launching strongly.
Casual players don't play enough for Game Pass to really be good value, so they need big name games to bring them over - and they may be less loyal to Sony. But without CoD and any similar buyouts blocked, how on earth do you get those games?
Exclusivity, marketing and blocking deals plus some smaller acquisitions (IOI and Asobo would be good gets and secure the exclusive games they've developed / are developing) may be key - but the costs will be high and without the guarantee of an asset like you get with a big acquisition.
But yes if MS don't either manage to close this deal or come out fighting hard I do fear the slow demise of Xbox due to a self-reinforcing death spiral where publishers ignore Xbox as it's too small a market, which increasingly makes PlayStation "the one that has all the games" so no one buys an Xbox...
@Fiendish-Beaver True, I think that's why the majority need to be marketing and "exclusive DLC / modes / missions" stuff like Sony pulls for the majority of its contracts.
Actual exclusivity deals are going to cost - Activision may play ball to punish Sony, but the rest MS will need to sign off on and hopefully they will if they realise Sony are a threat to their "cloud and mobile" future as so much of it relies on gaming
Also, do what Sony feared the most - get the CoD marketing deal, have exclusive content and modes and make sure the Xbox version is optimised so the more powerful XSX shines against the PS5
@Bleachedsmiles Agreed, if they don't want us console owners to give up and get PCs or PS5s, they need to show that Xbox is here to stay.
That requires aggressive moves, and no more "nice guy" routine - as at the moment it's getting nowhere, the acquisitions are being blocked and Sony just keep hoovering up individual studios, blocking / exclusivity deals and marketing deals that make it look like "the best place to play".
We need 360-generation Xbox, ruthless and willing to go toe-to-toe with Sony - as their whole mobile and cloud strategy will fail too as they won't have the content to get there, given Sony getting even more dominant will mean fewer games in the MS ecosystem...
There would have to be a few smaller acquisitions - developer level that don't trigger regulator investigations - in order to solidify a few games that are important to Xbox, and give some salve to fans that Xbox isn't going anywhere.
Beyond that, take over the marketing deal for CoD and other Activision games, maybe yes add some to Game Pass with a good deal but at least get some big third-party games for Game Pass.
Buy out exclusivity on some big games - you have to fight fire with fire and not sit back and let Sony take everything.
And finally, get some proper project management in to the more troubled studios and get them putting out games - we've a few games hitting this year but are a decent number guaranteed for next year too, and the year after?
If they get the first party output to one big game every 3 months that'd be great - but they need to support it with smaller ones more regularly and some big Game Pass deals, as PS Plus additions in recent months have potentially been better.
And kill off Gold - make the games part of Game Pass or something and remove that barrier to online, that may really start the fight back
@S1ayeR74 I think Phil has a ruthless side, as Bethesda and Kojima showed, but it's whether he's had the money or opportunities to play dirty - while it was easier to play nice and do acquisitions instead that was probably the better call.
But now I'm almost leaning to this dying at the EU stage rather than this carry on for another year, and see if Xbox step up with marketing deals, exclusivity and smaller takeovers.. Like Sony have been doing the entire time Xbox has been busy with this
@NEStalgia Xbox 360 and PS2 were my favourite days of being a gamer, and both times the "winners" were being ruthless so I don't think MS reverting would be too bad for us.
Early last generation was great too though - Xbox One launch titles were really good and Sony had some big wins after the whole PS3 era had left them needing to be creative.
@GADG3Tx87 True but that'll require MS and Xbox to step up with big marketing and exclusivity deals which so far they've mostly avoided.
I think the EU decision decides this - if the EU and USA (courts) approve, I see our government leaning on the CMA to approve after tribunal to avoid us losing international investment.
If the EU says no, we might finally find out what the backup plan is - I'm really hoping it's a good one otherwise I'll be buying a £900 PS6 after Xbox gets pushed out and Sony start to really gouge the prices...
@GADG3Tx87 Yep but Sony achieves consolidation in many ways already by blocking deals, locking down Square so much and massive marketing deals and install base.
Don't know about you, but I can't see many ways to compete without either being as ruthless as Sony but with more money to fight them, or acquiring enough content you can't be ignored...
And other acquisitions less likely to cause problems, although not 100% sure about publisher ones - developers definitely should be fine given Sony's run of purchases
@GADG3Tx87 There is a reason Sony would be more able to achieve that though - their install base.
Xbox could make the best game ever, but the anti-Xbox feeling amongst many gamers and the fact many gamers are on PlayStation as it's where their friends are could still mean they didn't gain much market share from it.
Honestly, I think only major marketing deals, some smart acquisitions / deals and a ruthless Microsoft willing to heavily subsidise the consoles really has a chance of breaking Sony's absolute dominance, which even Sony fans should want as otherwise Sony are free to hike prices and stop innovating
@Kaloudz Yeah I think Tango could be a backdoor to Japanese takeovers if MS decide to do many smaller acquisitions instead.
I'm worried today primarily because of what the MS response will be.
Either it's dragged out for ages while Xbox stays meek or goes through everywhere eventually with lots of concessions that hamper Xbox while Sony goes mad with acquisitions and exclusivity / blocking deals.
But if say the EU blocks it or the USA does, or the CMA appeal is eventually lost, I really want to know the Xbox backup plan - do they have one, and is it as aggressive as it'll need to be?
@SplooshDmg @Kaloudz Yep this is my concern, if the appeal takes months or even a year or so, does it suck all the oxygen out of Xbox in the meantime?
And even if it gets through, the amount of concessions may lead to a meek MS having to play nice while Sony goes mad with acquisitions and exclusivity / blocking deals...
@Kaloudz Lol the appeals process is a Tribunal which yes sends it back to the CMA with guidance, just like higher courts send decisions back to lower courts with points of law clarified.
It can then still be appealed to the Appeals Court then Supreme Court, and if the EU and USA approved the deal I suspect MS would fight that far.
But it will drag it out for ages so part of me wonders if the EU saying no now too might be better and let Microsoft get ruthless with that cash...
@GADG3Tx87 Probably not fully read through if I'm being honest, was mostly responding to the first bit.
Seems we're agreed - any sanctions would just affect Xbox, and to be honest I think MS would only ever consider proceeding if both the EU and USA approved it as the UK would then likely let the appeal go through else we look like a bad place to invest.
Overall though I suspect the other decisions are more important now, if the EU rules against too it's over
@S1ayeR74 See we disagreed in the other thread simply over the appeals process, but I'm of the same opinion that likely the process may be drawn out and not worth it - and if the EU goes against it, it's over.
In some ways, while I wanted this to go through as it was clearly "the plan" for MS, it would require Xbox to play "nice" for years and seeing how quiet they've been in the run-up to this it could actually be a bad thing.
Particularly now, as if it goes for months more it may mean even more quiet time / meek Xbox.
I'd also be interested to see what their fallback plan is, as I agree they need to go back to being ruthless and fight Sony in the gutter almost - my fear with all the nice-niceness is that they'd possibly just take it with a whimper...
@Titntin Agree with that, if the EU blocks also then it's over as the CMA decision can't be called irrational at the Tribunal, so would just leave the courts - and if you're having to fight it in the courts in the UK, USA and EU it's going to take years and likely not all will go in your favour.
My only hope if that happens is rather than retreating and being "nice" until they lose so much market share they go more cloud / become a multi-platform publisher we instead see the Xbox 360 Microsoft, willing to fight tooth and nail...
Of the top 20 law firms almost all have either moved many main operations into the cloud (either using SaaS or VMs) or have huge projects under way to do so.
The same goes for many other major sectors.
And Windows and Office still absolutely dominate professional workplaces despite the licencing costs.
I think you're just going way over the top - Sony still rents Azure off Microsoft throughout all of this, Activision at a low level still works with Sony, and the UK still worked fine with the EU over many things even during the worst of Brexit.
No big corporation or government goes to war with each other, it's not worth the pain - the scope of penalties would be limited to the Xbox division as to blow it up beyond that is liable to be chaotic for everyone involved with an unpredictable outcome.
Unpredictability is bad for governments as much as it is for big corporations - they'll still work together fine even if this ends up in the courts
@S1ayeR74 No, Brad Smith has and if the appeal was a foregone conclusion MS wouldn't be spending lots more money on lawyers.
Also, the Tribunal wouldn't even exist if there wasn't an appeals process.
You're correct the Tribunal sends it back to the CMA but it clarifies the scope, points of law and can point out factual errors - the CMA then has to take those into account (and prove it has done so) in its new decision.
If they did not, MS can then appeal to the Appeals Court as happened in the MyFerryLink case - the CMA lost that one then appealed to the Supreme Court.
That case alone shows that if necessary, the Tribunal isn't the only process and our courts can be used - even government policy can have judicial reviews, the courts in the UK are powerful and are generally the final destination of any unresolvable disputes.
If the UK government sanctioned MS and cut its contracts / returned the licences it would be suicidal.
I know people who work in government IT and work in IT myself - trust me, the UK government uses Azure for many new projects and works almost exclusively on Windows and Office.
It would take up to a decade to migrate it all, given we've still got computers in the NHS running on Windows XP.
I can guarantee you any sanction the UK government applied would be financial, or at most restrict Xbox sales - a war with Microsoft just hurts everyone involved and would cause major issues with one of our most important allies, the USA.
No silly little gaming takeover would be allowed to cause all that damage
Comments 1,046
Re: Ukraine The Latest Nation To Pass Xbox's Activision Blizzard Acquisition
@Kaloudz Lol us Brits have always had a bit of a tendency to think we can set the rules for the whole world - can't think when it came from!
In seriousness, I do think if the EU rules in favour the UK government will negotiate - get a sticking plaster "extra remedy" which gives them a fig leaf to overrule the CMA and show the UK is competitive and "better than the EU for business".
Particularly given we had the head of Unipart saying the USA has great green subsidies and the EU is about to have some, and the UK is quoted as saying "we're waiting to see what the EU does"
Re: Microsoft Signs New 10-Year Deal Despite UK ActiBlizz Verdict
@Rmg0731 That's not correct, it's speculation without any evidence.
The only bit the CMA mentioned was 100% of in-game purchases as obviously, it's streaming so likely going via Microsoft's services rather than the streamer building their own.
But the CMA didn't expand upon whether Microsoft will provide a portal for the streaming platform to review this purchases and claim a share - which is completely possible with the metadata around the stream - or if the streamer does actually have a payments system that they could use that instead.
Instead, they just made an assumption - and forgot about the fact the streaming company may be getting the game to stream for free or very cheap in return too, as remember they're charging their customers to access Xbox games!
The providers themselves wouldn't be pushing Microsoft's message like this if they weren't likely going to make money out of it - whether by improving their catalogue or by making a cut of transactions - so to suggest Microsoft are screwing over these cloud providers is frankly libellous
Re: Ukraine The Latest Nation To Pass Xbox's Activision Blizzard Acquisition
Microsoft helped defend Ukraine against a wave of Russian cyberattacks in the first few days of the war, so to be honest I'd have been surprised if they did rule against them.
Ignoring all that though, I'm kind of hoping something can be done and this deal goes through as I suspect MS really have put all their eggs in this basket - as even if Xbox start to play Sony's tactics I imagine most games for the next year or two are locked down already both platform and marketing wise.
So we could be well over halfway through this generation before we really start to see proper competition - either from this takeover (given Sony still have some marketing time left with Activision) or from Xbox's fightback - and that might be too late particularly given the latest PlayStation 5 sales when Xbox appears to be struggling with stock.
Sony spent $15m on adverts ahead of the PS5 launch, Xbox spent around $5m - I know marketing isn't everything as Xbox spent more ahead of the PS4 / Xbox One launches, but that time was to try and correct a major screw-up.
Once this takeover completes or dies completely, which we'll hopefully know within the month once we get the EU ruling (as the UK will likely follow them as Sunak will hate it if the EU seem more competitive), Xbox come out hard with marketing as it just seems to be Sony wall-to-wall at the moment
Re: Microsoft Signs New 10-Year Deal Despite UK ActiBlizz Verdict
@Titntin It's not really Pure's fault - PlayStation has more games being released and PushSquare are the bigger site so get more exclusive interviews and review codes etc, and have more staff to write content.
Pure will get there, particularly if Xbox starts to win back market share as they'll likely then get more staff.
As it is, they have to prioritise stories that will get the most interaction - but they still do a good job I think, and there's still plenty of gaming news it's just not getting as much attention as this drama
Re: Nvidia: Xbox's Acquisition Of ActiBlizz Would Be 'A Benefit To Cloud Gaming'
@Belkan Which is ridiculous as Sawyer has said Pentiment would never have been made without Game Pass, and many indies say Game Pass lets users play their games without risk.
I'm a good example of it - I used to be AAA games only, but now I play many indies particularly on Game Pass, and have bought many of my favourites so I can keep them
Re: Nvidia: Xbox's Acquisition Of ActiBlizz Would Be 'A Benefit To Cloud Gaming'
@WallyWest Also, the deal never specified the Switch, only Nintendo consoles.
By the time the next CoD affected by this deal came out, we'd likely be on Switch 2
Re: Nvidia: Xbox's Acquisition Of ActiBlizz Would Be 'A Benefit To Cloud Gaming'
@WallyWest They probably don't need to leave the UK, the government has been worried enough by Microsoft's angry statement about the UK being a bad place to do business that they've said they'll talk to MS regarding ABK:
https://twitter.com/WinC_Gaming/status/1651643150346100740
Given under UK competition law ministers can choose to override the CMA (either by allowing or blocking) in matters of economic importance, national security or national interests, Sunak may decide if the EU rules in favour of the deal he doesn't want to look anti-competitive.
Not guaranteed by a long shot, and if it drags on I'd rather it fell at the EU hurdle and MS starts to play Sony's game - but there is a possibility.
Re: Microsoft President Makes Headline News With 'Furious' Response To UK ActiBlizz Verdict
@Sebatrox @S1ayeR74
Probably means #112, references this Windows Central update with a quote from the UK government saying they'll engage with MS about ABK:
https://twitter.com/WinC_Gaming/status/1651643150346100740
Re: Microsoft President Makes Headline News With 'Furious' Response To UK ActiBlizz Verdict
@Sebatrox Yep combine that with the quote from Windows Central from the UK government about engaging with Microsoft, and there does appear to an angle, particularly if the EU approved as Sunak doesn't want to appear anti-competitive in comparison
Re: Microsoft President Makes Headline News With 'Furious' Response To UK ActiBlizz Verdict
"UPDATE: A spokesperson for the UK Prime Minister says that Microsoft's comments about the country's tech business viability was "wrong," and said it would engage Microsoft on the ABK issue."
https://twitter.com/WinC_Gaming/status/1651643150346100740
Suggests the UK government is at least willing to talk to Microsoft - it's local elections next week and the Tories really don't want to be seen as anti-business / a bad place to do business so will probably talk.
Technically, the prime minister can override the CMA (it's written into the recent competition update a few years back) so there's a chance a negotiation takes place at the highest levels - but I suspect it'll hinge on EU approval first as the UK won't want to give too much ground before then if they don't need to.
If it goes ahead, this would definitely be my preferred approach - reasonably quick approval in EU and the USA court case, and negotiated settlement in the UK.
If it doesn't, I'd prefer it to die at the EU approval stage so we can move on - this dragging on for years is bad for everyone
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@StrawberryWave Yes, of a market that has at most 10k concurrent users in the UK, given the figures from both the CMA and Microsoft (see Jez Corden / Windows Central for the full details).
So that 60% market share isn't exactly an insurmountable lead - I've no doubt if Sony took cloud seriously they could easily overtake those numbers, making the CMA's argument a joke
Re: Microsoft President Makes Headline News With 'Furious' Response To UK ActiBlizz Verdict
@Tharsman Yes he's just confirmed the 5,000 concurrent users is the UK region - I've updated my comment to make it clearer too.
Still very low considering how much weight the CMA put on cloud!
Re: Microsoft President Makes Headline News With 'Furious' Response To UK ActiBlizz Verdict
@Kaloudz Yep it really does show that when some of us pop onto the cloud to do a Rewards thing or we try a game out on it, we probably are some of the few gamers actually using it.
In fact, between this and the Microsoft Rewards subreddit, I wouldn't be surprised if we all make up like 25% of the actual users it's so low!
Maybe once they've got the content and are happy the internet in many countries is good enough they'll advertise it more heavily and so get the gamers in...
Re: Microsoft President Makes Headline News With 'Furious' Response To UK ActiBlizz Verdict
Jez Corden on Twitter has pointed this out from the MS and CMA outputs:
Basically meaning that under 9 or 10 thousand UK users are currently playing on cloud at any given time, and less than 5 thousand on xCloud...
Re: Microsoft President Makes Headline News With 'Furious' Response To UK ActiBlizz Verdict
@Kaloudz Agreed - I think if either the FTC court case gets off to a bad start or the EU rejects it, this is dead.
If not, then yes already some US lawyers are pointing out carve-outs for the UK that could be done, despite what the CMA head is saying in the BBC News article "this blocks it for the whole world".
To be honest, her arrogance about that does almost make me want them to do a carve-out and prove her wrong.
But for the most part, I'm worried if this rumbles on - if carve-outs / appeals can be done within months and the USA / EU approve then I'm happy for them to proceed.
If however the deal gets held up in full for years while they appeal the CMA, then I'd rather the EU just reject it and Xbox start Plan B - as during the challenge if Xbox stays as quiet as it has for the last year by the end the gap would be so big not even buying Take Two and EA too would make up the difference.
Given the rhetoric today I'm suspecting "mean and green" might be an option for Xbox as Microsoft seem willing to play hard ball - so while @Fiendish-Beaver is right about the cost of exclusivity for Xbox vs PS I do think MS might bankroll a few headline ones.
Combine that with killing Gold, some marketing deals and smaller purchases - particularly studios they're already very close with and who are doing projects for them like IOI and Asobo - along with some big Game Pass additions and offers on consoles then we could see Xbox finally start to close the gap...
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@Stocksy I still think Sainsbury's and Asda not merging was one of the worst decisions the CMA ever made.
Asda is now leveraged to the hilt with prices going up far faster than Tesco or Sainsbury's (in my experience).
Sainsbury's + Asda would have had the might to take on Tesco and led to a proper price war that might have helped us through all this inflation.
So yes I was there with you thinking there's no way they'd block that!
With regards to the rest, I think it's just wishful thinking as we don't have an idea what on earth Xbox's next move is without this as they've been so quiet and most games just seem to keep getting pushed back - I personally wouldn't mind the EU killing the deal so we can move on and start with "mean and green" hopefully, rather than years of legal wrangling that starve Xbox Game Studios of attention
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@ShadowofTwilight30 Actually the Appeals Court has overruled the CMA before, in the case of MyFerryLink.
That case took 3 years of legal battles though, with it due to go to the Supreme Court before EuroTunnel couldn't be bothered as the ferry leases were due to expire by then anyway.
So unless Microsoft do some clever carve-out or got an emergency hearing, I don't think any of us really want it to go "all the way" as if Xbox carried on being "2022 Xbox" for 3 more years they will lose this generation harder than the last...
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@Kienda Not so much personal grievance, as more a dislike of large US corporations recently (don't think they've approved anything in recent years for one) and likely being quite agreeable to the arguments Sony was putting forth.
The CMA aren't gamers, but they likely have children / grandchildren who are - and Sony have the market pretty much captured in the UK so they'll likely have only heard that the public don't want this deal to go ahead, without realising how dominant Sony actually is.
With regards to remedies, they would have been feeding back to Microsoft to offer them - they now say none were sufficient, but more importantly their decision makes clear no remedy would be sufficient as it would require deals with companies that don't even exist yet as they don't know the form cloud gaming will eventually take.
If Microsoft do get approval by the EU next month, and then win against the FTC it's likely they will fight this all the way - they may choose to bypass the CAT if they think the CMA are a lost cause and go straight to the Appeals Court which could speed things up.
But overall it's likely to take at least an extra year - so failing some clever carve-out of the UK or getting an emergency injunction / court hearing it could lead to another year of meek and weak Xbox with no marketing or messaging.
So part of me is now hoping the EU say no and Microsoft instead get mean and green, literally
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@Kienda The main block wasn't due to existing cloud providers, it was because of "those that may enter the market in the future, so the rules aren't already defined".
So not anyone Microsoft can make a deal with as the companies may not even exist yet.
It strikes me as very much a way to justify the decision they wanted to make, after Microsoft pointed out the CMA's calculation error which made their PlayStation harm theory null and void...
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@AverageGamer Ah OK my bad, I knew they had them for a while including Death Stranding as Sony blocked them working on the Edge browser on Xbox - didn't realise they'd since removed them completely.
It actually makes the CMA's argument even more laughable in that case then
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@Sol4ris I think the CMA have shown that even if Nintendo and Sony used their exclusives to take a majority of the cloud market, the CMA would talk about the "nascent quantum computing" or "fridge-based OS game ecosystem" to block any big mergers...
I do agree though, I'm kinda now hoping the EU says no or they get an injunction against the CMA for now, as the last thing Xbox needs is another year of dead marketing and activity because they're too busy appearing weak and meek to regulators.
I think that would kill Xbox to a level even the Activision takeover wouldn't save it.
So unless something can be sorted quickly (unlikely) I'd rather they now get aggressive and push their internal studios a bit harder (and properly project manage them), buy smaller developers with potential or existing relationships like IOI and Asobo, and snap up marketing and exclusivity deals...
Re: Cloud Gaming Platform Calls Out Decision To Block Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal
@StrawberryWave I'd argue tech wise (and possibly market share wise) Nvidia is the market leader in cloud.
They offer 4k streaming to their paying customers and can offer a top-end graphics card for ray tracing.
Ironically, they'd have been the best placed if this deal went through as they'd have their current offering which includes Sony's PC games and Xbox's PC games, and added Activision's
Re: Quantum Break Returns To Xbox Game Pass Following Brief Absence
Lol that's typical, I bought in just in case it was gone longer
Re: Talking Point: Where Does Xbox Go Next If ActiBlizz Deal Falls Through?
@Lightning720 Can we make the PS5s hurt people?!
It might make Xbox more popular with casual gamers at least!
I suspect the more dedicated players would say that their PS5 hitting them in the groin daily is just the price worth paying for the honour of being a PlayStation customer...
Re: Talking Point: Where Does Xbox Go Next If ActiBlizz Deal Falls Through?
@Fiendish-Beaver I don't see MS throwing in the towel, but I do see the danger of the death spiral you describe.
The Xbox One generation was a fiasco after the successful 360 one, and the spending on the One X and Game Pass seemed to be paying off, and this new generation looked bright.
Bethesda was a good acquisition, didn't take too long and while there were some misses like Halo being so late it appeared things were mostly OK.
Then this acquisition was announced and we hit major delays with first party games resulting in the dearth of big games last year - it appeared management was failing to control development, and was distracted by ABK, while the delays made Game Pass less appealing as there just wasn't much to replace the missing first party items.
It now feels like it goes one of two ways - either this acquisition goes through and if it doesn't MS comes out fighting hard, or Xbox enters a death spiral.
Sony have conditioned their more dedicated players to be a cult similar to Apple's, that paying such high prices for their hardware and software is an honour - and only poor people go elsewhere.
Those players are the ones that Game Pass works for, as you need to play regularly for it to save money compared to buying FIFA or COD once a year - but we're probably starting to reach a limit on how many more can be pulled over given PS Plus new tiers launching strongly.
Casual players don't play enough for Game Pass to really be good value, so they need big name games to bring them over - and they may be less loyal to Sony. But without CoD and any similar buyouts blocked, how on earth do you get those games?
Exclusivity, marketing and blocking deals plus some smaller acquisitions (IOI and Asobo would be good gets and secure the exclusive games they've developed / are developing) may be key - but the costs will be high and without the guarantee of an asset like you get with a big acquisition.
But yes if MS don't either manage to close this deal or come out fighting hard I do fear the slow demise of Xbox due to a self-reinforcing death spiral where publishers ignore Xbox as it's too small a market, which increasingly makes PlayStation "the one that has all the games" so no one buys an Xbox...
Re: Talking Point: Where Does Xbox Go Next If ActiBlizz Deal Falls Through?
@Fiendish-Beaver True, I think that's why the majority need to be marketing and "exclusive DLC / modes / missions" stuff like Sony pulls for the majority of its contracts.
Actual exclusivity deals are going to cost - Activision may play ball to punish Sony, but the rest MS will need to sign off on and hopefully they will if they realise Sony are a threat to their "cloud and mobile" future as so much of it relies on gaming
Re: Talking Point: Where Does Xbox Go Next If ActiBlizz Deal Falls Through?
Also, do what Sony feared the most - get the CoD marketing deal, have exclusive content and modes and make sure the Xbox version is optimised so the more powerful XSX shines against the PS5
Re: Talking Point: Where Does Xbox Go Next If ActiBlizz Deal Falls Through?
@Bleachedsmiles Agreed, if they don't want us console owners to give up and get PCs or PS5s, they need to show that Xbox is here to stay.
That requires aggressive moves, and no more "nice guy" routine - as at the moment it's getting nowhere, the acquisitions are being blocked and Sony just keep hoovering up individual studios, blocking / exclusivity deals and marketing deals that make it look like "the best place to play".
We need 360-generation Xbox, ruthless and willing to go toe-to-toe with Sony - as their whole mobile and cloud strategy will fail too as they won't have the content to get there, given Sony getting even more dominant will mean fewer games in the MS ecosystem...
Re: Talking Point: Where Does Xbox Go Next If ActiBlizz Deal Falls Through?
There would have to be a few smaller acquisitions - developer level that don't trigger regulator investigations - in order to solidify a few games that are important to Xbox, and give some salve to fans that Xbox isn't going anywhere.
Beyond that, take over the marketing deal for CoD and other Activision games, maybe yes add some to Game Pass with a good deal but at least get some big third-party games for Game Pass.
Buy out exclusivity on some big games - you have to fight fire with fire and not sit back and let Sony take everything.
And finally, get some proper project management in to the more troubled studios and get them putting out games - we've a few games hitting this year but are a decent number guaranteed for next year too, and the year after?
If they get the first party output to one big game every 3 months that'd be great - but they need to support it with smaller ones more regularly and some big Game Pass deals, as PS Plus additions in recent months have potentially been better.
And kill off Gold - make the games part of Game Pass or something and remove that barrier to online, that may really start the fight back
Re: Microsoft Will Appeal UK Decision To Block Activision Blizzard Purchase
@S1ayeR74 I think Phil has a ruthless side, as Bethesda and Kojima showed, but it's whether he's had the money or opportunities to play dirty - while it was easier to play nice and do acquisitions instead that was probably the better call.
But now I'm almost leaning to this dying at the EU stage rather than this carry on for another year, and see if Xbox step up with marketing deals, exclusivity and smaller takeovers.. Like Sony have been doing the entire time Xbox has been busy with this
Re: Microsoft Will Appeal UK Decision To Block Activision Blizzard Purchase
@NEStalgia Xbox 360 and PS2 were my favourite days of being a gamer, and both times the "winners" were being ruthless so I don't think MS reverting would be too bad for us.
Early last generation was great too though - Xbox One launch titles were really good and Sony had some big wins after the whole PS3 era had left them needing to be creative.
So it might be OK, guess we'll see potentially
Re: Microsoft Will Appeal UK Decision To Block Activision Blizzard Purchase
@ShadowofTwilight30 Incorrect, they lost the MyFerryLink ruling
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@GADG3Tx87 True but that'll require MS and Xbox to step up with big marketing and exclusivity deals which so far they've mostly avoided.
I think the EU decision decides this - if the EU and USA (courts) approve, I see our government leaning on the CMA to approve after tribunal to avoid us losing international investment.
If the EU says no, we might finally find out what the backup plan is - I'm really hoping it's a good one otherwise I'll be buying a £900 PS6 after Xbox gets pushed out and Sony start to really gouge the prices...
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@NEStalgia I'm hopeful for a more ruthless MS if this fails as I think it's needed to restore console space balance after the last generation.
Otherwise I agree Sony may be allowed to run away with this generation too
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@GADG3Tx87 Yep but Sony achieves consolidation in many ways already by blocking deals, locking down Square so much and massive marketing deals and install base.
Don't know about you, but I can't see many ways to compete without either being as ruthless as Sony but with more money to fight them, or acquiring enough content you can't be ignored...
Re: Microsoft CEO: I've Never Been More Excited About Xbox's Pipeline Of Games
@Kaloudz I meant Tango Gameworks are a Japanese subsidiary so could be used in takeovers to avoid the block on foreign takeovers.
And yep fully agree
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@Kaloudz Think EU saying no kills it, yes.
And other acquisitions less likely to cause problems, although not 100% sure about publisher ones - developers definitely should be fine given Sony's run of purchases
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@GADG3Tx87 There is a reason Sony would be more able to achieve that though - their install base.
Xbox could make the best game ever, but the anti-Xbox feeling amongst many gamers and the fact many gamers are on PlayStation as it's where their friends are could still mean they didn't gain much market share from it.
Honestly, I think only major marketing deals, some smart acquisitions / deals and a ruthless Microsoft willing to heavily subsidise the consoles really has a chance of breaking Sony's absolute dominance, which even Sony fans should want as otherwise Sony are free to hike prices and stop innovating
Re: Microsoft CEO: I've Never Been More Excited About Xbox's Pipeline Of Games
@Kaloudz Yeah I think Tango could be a backdoor to Japanese takeovers if MS decide to do many smaller acquisitions instead.
I'm worried today primarily because of what the MS response will be.
Either it's dragged out for ages while Xbox stays meek or goes through everywhere eventually with lots of concessions that hamper Xbox while Sony goes mad with acquisitions and exclusivity / blocking deals.
But if say the EU blocks it or the USA does, or the CMA appeal is eventually lost, I really want to know the Xbox backup plan - do they have one, and is it as aggressive as it'll need to be?
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@SplooshDmg @Kaloudz Yep this is my concern, if the appeal takes months or even a year or so, does it suck all the oxygen out of Xbox in the meantime?
And even if it gets through, the amount of concessions may lead to a meek MS having to play nice while Sony goes mad with acquisitions and exclusivity / blocking deals...
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@Kaloudz Lol the appeals process is a Tribunal which yes sends it back to the CMA with guidance, just like higher courts send decisions back to lower courts with points of law clarified.
It can then still be appealed to the Appeals Court then Supreme Court, and if the EU and USA approved the deal I suspect MS would fight that far.
But it will drag it out for ages so part of me wonders if the EU saying no now too might be better and let Microsoft get ruthless with that cash...
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@Stocksy Lol I'm from the UK and to be honest we deserve the hate.
Our decisions since 2016 have been atrocious and we could possibly even be blamed for Trump lol...
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@GADG3Tx87 Probably not fully read through if I'm being honest, was mostly responding to the first bit.
Seems we're agreed - any sanctions would just affect Xbox, and to be honest I think MS would only ever consider proceeding if both the EU and USA approved it as the UK would then likely let the appeal go through else we look like a bad place to invest.
Overall though I suspect the other decisions are more important now, if the EU rules against too it's over
Re: Microsoft Will Appeal UK Decision To Block Activision Blizzard Purchase
@S1ayeR74 See we disagreed in the other thread simply over the appeals process, but I'm of the same opinion that likely the process may be drawn out and not worth it - and if the EU goes against it, it's over.
In some ways, while I wanted this to go through as it was clearly "the plan" for MS, it would require Xbox to play "nice" for years and seeing how quiet they've been in the run-up to this it could actually be a bad thing.
Particularly now, as if it goes for months more it may mean even more quiet time / meek Xbox.
I'd also be interested to see what their fallback plan is, as I agree they need to go back to being ruthless and fight Sony in the gutter almost - my fear with all the nice-niceness is that they'd possibly just take it with a whimper...
Really hope they wouldn't though.
Re: Microsoft Will Appeal UK Decision To Block Activision Blizzard Purchase
@Titntin Agree with that, if the EU blocks also then it's over as the CMA decision can't be called irrational at the Tribunal, so would just leave the courts - and if you're having to fight it in the courts in the UK, USA and EU it's going to take years and likely not all will go in your favour.
My only hope if that happens is rather than retreating and being "nice" until they lose so much market share they go more cloud / become a multi-platform publisher we instead see the Xbox 360 Microsoft, willing to fight tooth and nail...
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@GADG3Tx87 Really, Azure still in its infancy?
Of the top 20 law firms almost all have either moved many main operations into the cloud (either using SaaS or VMs) or have huge projects under way to do so.
The same goes for many other major sectors.
And Windows and Office still absolutely dominate professional workplaces despite the licencing costs.
I think you're just going way over the top - Sony still rents Azure off Microsoft throughout all of this, Activision at a low level still works with Sony, and the UK still worked fine with the EU over many things even during the worst of Brexit.
No big corporation or government goes to war with each other, it's not worth the pain - the scope of penalties would be limited to the Xbox division as to blow it up beyond that is liable to be chaotic for everyone involved with an unpredictable outcome.
Unpredictability is bad for governments as much as it is for big corporations - they'll still work together fine even if this ends up in the courts
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@S1ayeR74 No, Brad Smith has and if the appeal was a foregone conclusion MS wouldn't be spending lots more money on lawyers.
Also, the Tribunal wouldn't even exist if there wasn't an appeals process.
You're correct the Tribunal sends it back to the CMA but it clarifies the scope, points of law and can point out factual errors - the CMA then has to take those into account (and prove it has done so) in its new decision.
If they did not, MS can then appeal to the Appeals Court as happened in the MyFerryLink case - the CMA lost that one then appealed to the Supreme Court.
That case alone shows that if necessary, the Tribunal isn't the only process and our courts can be used - even government policy can have judicial reviews, the courts in the UK are powerful and are generally the final destination of any unresolvable disputes.
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@GADG3Tx87 You're insane.
If the UK government sanctioned MS and cut its contracts / returned the licences it would be suicidal.
I know people who work in government IT and work in IT myself - trust me, the UK government uses Azure for many new projects and works almost exclusively on Windows and Office.
It would take up to a decade to migrate it all, given we've still got computers in the NHS running on Windows XP.
I can guarantee you any sanction the UK government applied would be financial, or at most restrict Xbox sales - a war with Microsoft just hurts everyone involved and would cause major issues with one of our most important allies, the USA.
No silly little gaming takeover would be allowed to cause all that damage
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@S1ayeR74 They can or why would Microsoft appeal?
I trust their lawyers over you, if I'm being honest.
This is the tribunal they'll be appealing to:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competition_Appeal_Tribunal
Re: Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Officially Blocked In The UK
@GADG3Tx87 Lol the UK government would be very careful to only apply any ban to Xbox.
If they banned Azure and Office our country would be ungovernable lol