The research and advisory firm DFC Intelligence has published a 2024 market report and forecast this week for the gaming industry, and it highlights a "significant risk" facing Xbox and PlayStation when it comes to next-gen consoles.
According to the firm, Nintendo will run away with the next generation in terms of console sales, predicting 15-17 million sales in 2025 and more than 80 million by 2028. As for Xbox and PlayStation though, it's said that one of them will "struggle mightily" in the console space, as there's not enough room for more than two major systems in the future.
"There isn’t room for more than two major console systems. Sony or Microsoft will struggle mightily in a distant third place – largely depending on which of those companies can gain early momentum."
Here's a look at DFC Intelligence's projections for the next few years:
Despite this, the company is predicting that the industry will achieve "major revenue growth for the second half of the decade", with the game software market set to grow to $83 billion in 2028, and the overall console and PC industry set to reach $203 billion in 2028. This is despite a "post-COVID slump" that's set in over the past couple of years.
Of course, we've already started to see Xbox pulling away from a console focus in recent times, especially when it comes to the new "This is an Xbox" marketing campaign. It's already been confirmed that Phil Spencer and his team are working on new hardware for the next generation, but Xbox's future success certainly won't rely on consoles alone.