Talking Point: Do You Think This Generation Will Be A Short One?

What are you talking about? It hasn't started yet.

I think there are no generations anymore, it doesn't matter if the next Xbox can be called Xbox 6 or Xbox SeriesX-2, it's really going to be the same, new hardware iteration for the same games, it just improves performance or graphical settings.

Considering most stuff still releases on the previous generation I just can’t see it happening.

I don’t think an early release would massively boost MS and subscription etc. because most 3rd party games would focus the bigger market of PS/series console.

(Although an unneeded PsPro console may help MS bridge a generation gap) has the tech advanced enough to make a cheap enough next gen console that has a big enough advantage?

I can't see a big leap in technology in the console market. Yeah, we will have more teraflops, like upgrading your PC, but nothing substantial.

It has been hard to sell Series X|S, and it would be even harder to move people to a new hardware. I don't know if this 'generation' is ending soon, but a portable Xbox seems possible as a new alternative to access Microsoft services.

Let's put it another way: do you think this console generation has sufficiently encouraged consumers to invest in the next generation? Unless you're willing to look past stuff like the following:

1) projects that are years in development and typically still manage to launch as glorified betas.

2) being charged more and more for less and less overall content and features (specifically looking at big-name IPs compared to their iterations even two or three generations ago...cough, Halo, cough...like where did offline local splitscreen or varied weather and environments go?).

3) all the ways online functionality is being used to gate, control, and gouge users for more $$$ after the initial point-of-sale.

4) how the subscription models whose express purpose was to make consumers comfortable with the idea of investing hundreds of dollars in hardware they don't actually own anything on are getting even MORE stingy and expensive.

We have the most powerful hardware and the biggest displays the hobby has ever seen, and things like local multiplayer are actively avoided by developers specifically because online is where they make $$$ at. But you know, I've decided I no longer am willing to accept that, especially given all the other ways the industry has lost sight of what made this hobby FUN in the first place because of nothing more than GREED. And has anyone else begun to feel that the more photorealistic developers try to make everything, the more alike so many games seem to look and feel anymore (meaning dark, violent, and generally depressing)? I've been an avid hobbyist since the Atari 2600, and I'm actually feeling comfortable with the idea that this may be my last go-around. I can't speak for anyone else, I realize, but I also suspect I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Sony and Microsoft don’t want to make the same mistake twice and underestimate Nintendo. Do they lose software sales to them? Perhaps not but if I have £50 to spend on a new Switch game or a new Xbox one I’m going to buy the one I can play on my lunch break.

I do wonder if they’ll both chill with the spec beefing a bit and consolidate their software tools so we can get 1080p60 as a minimum across the board? There is lots of room for innovation that doesn’t require faster processors.

No but this one feels like a short/slow generation so far and a slightly boring one at that to me anyways.

I think it will end up being 7 years. Microsoft has some work to do to earn trust back. I can't see myself investing in another console from them right now. Some of the games they have coming needto land first.

I think it's a pretty tough time at the moment for anyone to launch a game console right now.
Heck video games software is a risk with a lot of games not hitting targets and console launches can be expensive.

Money is tight here in the UK. I've been told it's the same in Japan. Don't know the situation in other regions of the world.

Short answer; yes!

I think the neXt box will release in 2026. There are a few things that make me believe this;

1. First off, that is the widely circulated rumour.

2. Sarah Bond's assertion that the next Xbox would be a tremendous advancement, suggests that the development of the next console is already well established .

3. The scrapping, by Microsoft, of the usual mid-generation refresh, has enabled them to concentrate on a proper next generation console instead, thus enabling the release of the next generation earlier than it otherwise would have done.

4. Lastly, there were 4 games in the most recent Xbox Showcase that did not feature the usual Xbox logo (Gears of War: E-Day, Blade, State of Decay 3 and Perfect Dark). My view is that any, or each, of those games could well be a launch title for the neXt box.

So, even though the generation would only be 6 years long, that isn't hugely shorter than the average of 7 or 8, is it? Also, Microsoft have already acknowledged, and accepted, that they have lost this generation, and the one time they have ever managed to pull ahead of Sony was with the Xbox 360, which released a full year ahead of the PS3. Obviously, there is little chance of Xbox closing that gap now, but releasing a console probably two years ahead of the PS6 does at least put them in with a fighting chance of gaining a little ground, particularly if it really is a huge advancement in the console space...

@Pabpictu i agree with you and personally i want it to be that way. For those that want to wait for better performance they are fine to do so. But for gamers like me that have the money to spend for the latest upgrades i want them every 4-6 years. Consoles come out with outdated tech so if they go 7-8 years it’s just dragging a dead horse by then. That said i also don’t think when the newer hardware comes out that all games should be cross gen. Sure FIFA should and will be. Sure it makes sense for certain games. But let’s say the next Gears of war wanted to take advantage of the new tech but it on the newer console and PC only. It gives players an incentive to upgrade. Thats my dream cycle.

Now as to this generation. I think we will see the next Xbox before PS6 but thats about as far as i will go. Not going to take a guess as to what year it will be. We have heard a lot about 2026 but that could be the handheld for all we know. Or maybe it is the X-2.

I feel like games still don't feel "next gen" so I think that console makers are gonna extend this one out. The switch successor is on the way in the next year or two but since MS and Sony tend to ignore Nintendo (despite the market share Nintendo eats up) neither are going to see a reason to push new hardware (they may borrow something from Nintendo again but that's about it). As they have costs to recoup.

I'm still sorta feeling buyers remorse for both PS5 and Series X right now so I hope they do extend so that we can really see what these systems can do. As of right now though? I'm going back to PC next gen.

@Fiendish-Beaver I agree with every word you just said. There was even a rumor that the next Xbox would launch with a next gen COD game. That will get that target audience of players in a frenzy to play on the best console at the time. Sure it don’t take away from Sony a lot but it win’s some market share back. Console generations used to be 5 years some even 4. So that 7-8 was way too long for my taste. I like 5-6 years. So i am excited for 2026 unless it’s just the Xbox handheld we see in 2026. Which i would still get and enjoy. But i hope it’s the X-2. You hit it on the head buddy. Well said and well written as always my friend. 😊

Yes and I'm predicting they will get shorter in coming generations as well. It will be every 3-4 years (or shorter) and operate as more of a pc model where you upgrade when you decide the games aren't running as well as you want.

The generations title will only be meaningful when talking about nintendo who will probably continue the annoying practice of walling off games to 1 or 2 generations and forcing everyone to buy them again on a different form factors of cartridge.

The bigger problem might be that after the "turbulent times" you pointed out — does MS have enough goodwill to ask everyone to turn around and fork over another half-grand for a new system? Especially when they feel the promises of Series S/X haven't been realized?

Ideally, future "generations" are half-steps like phones or PCs (something that the PS4 Pro/One X mid-gen refresh paved the way for). Afterall, even a very small power boost would still make Bond's claim of "the most powerful Xbox yet" accurate. But would smaller, muted launches every 2-3 years draw the same level of interest and excitement?

We are still in cross gen mode. The Switch and Series S are “HoLdInG bAcK tHe GeNeRaTiOn 🤪”

If MS isn't giving up on consoles, which seems unlikely, they need to cut out of this gen early and desync from releasing along side Playstation, as they did with the Xbox > 360 transition.

Nice to think that xbox has another generation in them tbf

Console generations don’t work the way they used to. They’ve become iterative. This generation hasn’t even started yet, partly thanks to switch. A person can still play most stuff on ps4 or xb1.

That said, while 5 years isn’t exactly early, switch 2 might sort of force the next box and the ps6.

@AtlanteanMan on point. And these are the same reasons why retrogaming is resurfacing. The simplicity, certainty, and feeling that you are in control again as player and as a hobbyist.

I’ve owned an Xbox series x since release date

And I don’t feel I’ve played anything on it that warranted a £450 upgrade from my Xbox one

I went into this gen hoping Xbox would go back to there glory 360 days

And spent most of it playing okayish games and reading articles about the end of Xbox and aqusitions also games that where going to be available next year

If this generation was a colour it would be grey battleship grey.

I ended up purchasing a steam deck and playing pretty much adventure games and streaming my Xbox over cloud

Don’t think I’ll purchase the next Xbox but will purchase gamepass when new releases become available and cancel once completed.

To be fair this whole gen for both consoles has been stale

And the switch isn’t doing it for me either feels like it’s long overdue an overhaul.

Is been a funny old sort of new generation this generation.
At the moment I looking forward to Switch 2, not mainly because of it being a new Switch generation but so Nintendo start releasing new top AAA in house studio games for the new console.
It’s about time we had a new 3d Mario platformer and I think it will release with Switch 2 along with a couple of other big games.
At least it best do as Switch 2 seems to be taking an age to release and Nintendo keep saying so they can release it with new big AAA games.

As for Sony I guess the PS5 Pro will release when ready.

As for Xbox, even Microsoft don’t know so how I’m meant to know is anyone’s guess 🤣

If I was Sony and Nintendo I would just carry on as normal and release a next generation console when ready.

If I was Microsoft, unless they are going to advertise world wide and put some effort into selling consoles I would not bother and just go publishing only.

We won't be able to determine how long the 9th generation will last until after it launches.

Until then I really like the new SSD I got for my Xbox Two, and my PS4 Pro Plus (White Edition) is really neato! Wonder what the PS4 Pro Plus (White Edition) (Rev. 2 2024 Edition) will be like?

@Fiendish-Beaver The problem with Xbox is that every time they wet their own bed, instead of trying to clean it up, they just go silent, ride out the market and then attempt to reboot the brand with a new hardware launch. Whereupon they soon after soil the clean sheets again and repeat the cycle. To be fair, though, Nintendo did the exact same thing with WiiU and it somehow became a resounding success. I still don't know how Nintendo went from "unwanted and rejected" to "hot ticket item" between Switch and WiiU, while selling the EXACT same games on them. I think most of it stems from the slick marketing of calling it a "hybrid console". People bought into a "new concept", while "Super Game Boy Advance with HDMI out" would not have flown off the shelves as much.

@Daleaf The problem is we've capped out. For 40 years gaming has been about selling leaps forward in graphics and density. We've now hit the ceiling where games are real-time rendered Pixar movies, and some are proper CGI with near-photorealism. There's no where left to go except more perfect lighting, more perfect shadows, more perfect surface interactions. Tiny things that aren't really perceptible to the consumer other than when comparing something new to something old. There's nowhere left to go to wow people, we're already at the state of "pretty close to live action photography" and you cant' get "more" impressive than "looks real." There's VR, but that's still a long way from being mainstream, if it ever is. That's really the only place left to go. And the leaps of wow still exist there.

@somnambulance Very much like the Sega cycle where there were 3 back to back consoles. People lost faith that the purchase had any lasting power and just waited "for the next one." Nerds are used to "buy a new thing every few years." COnsumers and parents especially have the outlook of "I want the new XStationBox" "But you just got one 2 years ago!"

If you're going to sell dedicated games appliances, it had better well last a while.

@Fiendish-Beaver It is looking more like they could drop the next Xbox in 2026, but I wonder if they will class it as a next generation or just something like the Series NeXt so its kinda new, but also still not.

Where as I think with the Pro sony could keep the Generation going a touch longer and still be running the 5 for a good while. Then the 6 will blow the Xbox out of the water given that I bet the neXt will not be much different to the Pro.

As many have said already. MS never started their 9th generation and have been doing Xbox One nonsense for 11 years.

They shouldn’t release a new console until they make a good library for the current one.

The first thing MS needs is a proper name for the next console. The casual consumer doesn't even know which Xbox console is which because of the confusing names. Call it Xbox 6 and be done with it. My nephew bought a Xbox One X thinking he had the latest and greatest console only to realize he was still behind a generation when he couldn't play Starfield. The average consumer is confused about what they are buying and will just get a PS6.

@Meehanuk_1987 I agree.

It's a difficult question. I don't think... that better graphics make better games. HD is ok for me.
Portability means something nowadays.
The more beefy hardware, the more expensive the games are to develop.
The Xbox Pass and cloud gaming could rupture this circle of potent hardware - though this wouldn't resolve much for the developers, just for the end user.

After these last four years, I have zero interest in future console generations, from Xbox and Playstation.

Think it has 3 more years left and Nintendo hasn't even announced their next console yet. Nintendo probably aiming to compete with the next gen xbox and playstation. Or maybe xbox and playstation will have a pro version in a couple years from now and then we might have a longer generation for this console generation.

It's hard to say, there's a couple factors at work that weren't really an issue before the Series X|S released:

• GPU / APU manufacturers are now prioritizing the AI and big data markets, which will probably affect the costs and availability of new GPUs / APUs.
• In the last few years several countries — including the 10 countries responsible for 77% of video games sales — have passed legislation to make high-speed internet available to all their citizens, making cloud gaming / game streaming services a lot more viable.

And on top of that, it's unclear what Microsoft's strategy going forward is going to be: Are they going to lean into the console market or exit the market in favour of sales on PC? Or are they going to create a "gamer's variant" of Windows to compete with SteamOS, making Xbox "consoles" little more than a baseline PC standard for developers to aim for? Or are they going to do something else altogether?

I think Sony would like to release a new console every 5 years where as MS is fine with releasing a new console every 7-8 years.

What is 'short', its been 4yrs already and it doesn't look like a 'new' generation is coming next year - which would have been a Generation back in the Nintendo/Sega days and even with the OG Xbox and N64 & Game Cube...

It's only 'recent generations that have pushed beyond 5 yrs - the 360/PS3 gen went on 'longer' than any before and changed expectations. Even last gen had 'mid' gen releases to 'prolong that gen a few more years - now they expect a 'decade' of releases and eternal Online support...

So even if they were to release a new Gen next November, 5yrs after the Series X, then NO, I wouldn't consider that a 'Short' gen, more a 'normal' gen instead of an extended one.

The problem is Technology advances so quickly and PC's, AI etc is advancing so quickly - even in the Mobile sector.And now Consoles are expected to last a LONG time, deliver 60fps and compete with PC's that have AI and a LOT more power/performance to deliver the game with RT and everything on Ultra at 60fps...

In the case of MS, I doubt it will be the 'end' or 'start' of a new Generation, more a iterative step up offering better graphics/performance etc as I doubt many games will be 'new' Xbox only either for many years as they'll want the Series SX/PS5 gen money too

@BAMozzy problem is if consoles are replaced so frequently to catch up, they're not actually any cheaper than extreme PCs which kills its whole purpose. And the PC really outlasts it because the mid range cards didn't even jump that much anymore between a few gens only the elite cards do. And it's the rut consoles are stuck in. I just don't see the console market going for non stop upgrade cycles then most only buy a few games over years. Frankly I see pc getting off the non stop upgrade cycle.... The leaps every 2 or 3 years aren't close to what they were 20 years ago.

But you're taking more going into the PC or mobile upgrade model instead of generations with long compatibility. That i definitely see. I expected that's where Ms was going starting with 1x. I was disappointed when they announced Scarlett and it was just another generational console.

@somnambulance Yeah, I really don't know exactly how they're positioning their handheld strategy. It has great potential but they're going to be head to head against Nintendo at the present rate and that can't end well. They're always too early or too late. Wizards, they are not.

Wait I still need to upgrade my to again first. I waited a bit until got next gen for this gen… older now with busy life and kids so limited on game time so with current backlogs there isn’t always an immediate rush. It would need to be an amazing jump with an amazing game release to grab me…. I mean next elders scroll on next gen only day one next gen only would be the pull for me.

@NEStalgia Of course I don't expect Consoles to be 'replaced' as often as PC components or new Mobile Phones come out. AMD or nVidia may bring out new GPU's annually - same with Samsung or Apple in the Phone market.

However, if you go back to the 80's and 90's, even 2000's, most Consoles were replaced after 5yrs and even the 360/PS3 gen, there were talks about those being around too long, maybe Consoles were going to die etc. 4-5yrs was considered a good run. Even the OG Xbox was only around about 4-5yrs.

All I was saying is that technology is advancing quickly with AI and RT processing cores and it won't be long before Mobile devices can play the latest games with RT maybe with AI upscaling/frame gen etc.

As this generation is already 4yrs old, even if it 'ended' next year, which it very clearly isn't, I wouldn't necessarily think that was a 'Short' generation as I'd think that was about 'average' overall. I can see this maybe going on to 2026 before a 'new' console is out from MS and maybe Sony will release a Pro to push their new gen until 2027 and 6yrs is above 'average' so would be one of the longer generations in my opinion.

The point I was trying to make is that unless they choose to end the Generation this year, which shows absolutely NO sign of happening, then I can't see how you can consider it a 'Short' generation. If it reaches 5yrs+, Id say it was a 'normal' Generation (especially considering you'll get a few years of Cross-Gen) and anything more than 5yrs I would consider a 'long' (even if not as long as the longest) generation. 5yrs+ is Average, not 'short' - so I can't see this being a 'Short' gen when its already 4yrs in and no indication its 'ending' in the next year to be a 'short' gen...

Other than hellblade 2 we've seen nothing else that pushes the series x so it's pointless we need the consoles available now to be pushed to there limits 1st and xbox actually releases some decent exclusives and don't get me started on the ps5 pro that thing is a joke this generation has been awful

Gens used to be 5.5 years long on avg.

That if next Xbox is 2026 which was rumoured and stuff brought up in court cases, that's 6 years. And if same rumours etc for PS6 in 2027, that's 7 years and they've said PS5 over halfway and 4 years into a gen seems over halfway to me.

So I don't see how it is a short gen, like that last one was 7 years, if avg is 6.5 years for Series/PS5.

They're still literally releasing Xbox one and PS4 versions of brand new games. So no I don't think so.

Seen a new game announced for 2025 with XBO and PS4 versions. It's crazy.

@masofdas @BAMozzy Yeah, it's easy to forget how short each generation used to be. 5-6 years was the norm, but the Xbox only lasted 4 years until the 360 showed up, and GBA only got 3 years before the so-called "third pillar" DS started killing it off.

But this one still feels short. I chalk it up to a mix between getting old (5 years feels a lot longer when it's a third of your life!) and the diminishing returns of new hardware.

We're never going to see another leap like N64 to GameCube, and new generations don't really bring new gameplay or even presentation innovations that the previous gen couldn't already do, so why bother pushing a 5-year cycle at this point? I would be okay with 10-year generations, as long as devs stay within the systems' limitations, and I can't be the only one who feels that way.

@smoreon Of course you aren't seeing the 'leaps' you used to with a new generation - going from 8 colours to a palette of 32 makes a bigger difference than going from 16m to 1bn colours - even though its a much 'bigger' increase.

You can only 'invent' 3D or Proper Audio once so going from 2D to 3D or hearing proper speech and CD quality Audio is a big leap from Beeps and/or digitised Speech. Instead of having to read text, now we get their vocal performance, instead of some digitised Soundtrack, we now get the highest quality Audio possible. Going from 5.1 to 7.1 to Atmos is 'iterative' at best.

There is 'NO' game in reality that cannot be made with the Current Hardware. We already have big Open Worlds in full 3D to explore and Car games have looked 'realistic' for generations even if not 'Photorealistic'. You can tell exactly what make, model etc

However, Current Consoles can't really offer the Ray Tracing - often just an aspect (shadows or reflections - often compromised) and Frame Rates. So it is limiting compared to the Full RT in CyberPunk. Doesn't have the AI that even a mobile (Apple for example) will offer and as such are left with FSR upscaling - the worst on offer.

Its one of those Catch 22 - no-one thought games like Gears of War on the 360 looked 'bad' and 2 in particular was incredible at the time, but compared to Space Marine 2 or E-Day cinematic, its miles away.

There has often been talk about the Series S too and its 'limited' RAM - even a RoG Ally has more, and still had a upgrade on the RoG Ally X. Its been a 'problem' for some devs BG3 and Black Myth Wukong for example. We have some games having to run at '720p' just to try and get 'closer' to 60fps. and Some games (Star Wars Jedi Survivor and Starfield that probably won't run at '60fps' because of CPU bottlenecks and Starfield 'Looks' dated too.

I do know what you mean, I can't believe its been nearly 4 yrs already and as I tried to say, 4yrs or 'less' to me would be a 'short' Generation as historically 5yrs would likely be the longest most would last before another Gen release. As its been nearly 4yrs and no sign of a new gen coming 'soon', it can't be a 'Short' gen. If they replace in 2025, I'd think that was 'average' with 6yrs or more I'd consider as 'long'.

With MS 'unlikely' to make a 'clean' break, everything carried Forward, it will feel iterative too because most (if not all) could release on the previous gen for another 3-4 yrs. Those games may not run at '4k' or 60fps, may not be 'Path Traced' or have the density.

The difference 'AI' and 'RT' can bring to gaming could feel 'iterative', but also make 'open worlds' feel more alive and have more interactions with NPC's that don't have the same 'scripted' response or ignore you completely. RT could help in Horror games, real-time shadows, reflections etc could help with the 'horror'. A shadow moving could alert you to an enemy behind you or maybe use mirrors to see round corners for example but its still an 'iterative' step up from what came before - for some maybe transformative, game changing but others may feel they've played the 'Game-play' loop or the 'Story' before...

@BAMozzy I agree that there's lots of room for technological advancement, and there always will be. There's always the possibility of larger crowds, more extensive RT, etc... and of course, true 4K at 120fps! Even today's games could be easily tweaked or expanded to make use of at least 4x the resources... but then, that just goes back to the issue of diminishing returns. How much better would they look and play? Would we even notice?

At this point, I feel that the hardware is good enough, and it all comes down to priorities: today's systems (even Series S!) can already produce gorgeous graphics at upwards of 1080p and 60fps, so as long as devs choose performance over pushing past the limits, I'm fine with where things are for now.

Regarding RT, "fake" shadows and reflections have been used very effectively for decades, long before RT was viable. In fact, those exact examples you gave were both in the Resident Evil remake on GameCube! RT offers greater fidelity, but it's an incremental thing. (RT seems like a bigger upgrade than it is, only because modern games all use techniques like SSR, which is so much worse than what Resident Evil and Mario Sunshine did in 2002!)

AI, on the other hand... I find that idea intriguing. I don't know if it would actually make the games more fun, but it would definitely be interesting if more games could allow the player to go "off-script" and then react accordingly.

@BAMozzy Totally agree about it not being long before mobile can do rt and upscaling etc. That's kind of the same point I was making really. General purpose computing is moving at a pace where dedicated graphics machines are begining to be fast irrelevant the same way low end discrete gpus are irrelevant and gone. Every mid range CPU comes with a GPU better than the expensive gpus we had 15 years ago. Thus I see consoles having a limited future. Having graphics nothing else could touch was their claim to fame and that's ending as general compute rivals it me and more and the high end is hitting roadblocks if that's practical to develop for.

Physical retail is it's other unique selling point but that's not demanded widely anymore. I thought maybe going full HBO and locking all exclusives to them forever would be it, but even Sony isn't going that route with more PC releases and probably mobile when viable.

This generation is especially weird. People keep saying we're 4 years in. No we're not it's 3.5. and the first year they weren't even available widely. And yearly the 2.5 after we've still been waiting for it to feel like the generation started. It feels like we're still in launch window waiting for the big games. I don't think this gen counts as "average" when the first 2 or 3 years was just waiting for the launch to stabilize. Yet games kinda feel like they skipped the hardware.

@NEStalgia The successful transition from the disaster Wii U to major success Switch was because the Wii U hardware was bad but the games were amazing as in most cases. So just taking the same games while improving issues like frame rate dips & adding any DLC for a 'Definitive/Deluxe' version on a system that functions properly was enough.

@shoeses The WiiU wasn't really bad though, and it did some things better than Switch. It was poorly marketed, undesirable, and had the misfortune of launching just before PS4 and X1 so that as soon as it came out, 3rd party support vanished and 100% of all marketing from all publishers went to PS/XB, with several (EA) actively sabotaging WiiU with negative commentary.

"By Nintendo standards" WiiU wasn't bad hardware. And "By Nintendo standards" Switch isn't particularly special hardware, it's another Nintendo handheld, but without the unique gimmicks of the DS era, just a return to the Game Boy form. With a TV out.

It's not so much a matter of bad hardware and good hardware, just marketing and perception. The Switch is actually similar power to WiiU, just a touch more powerful in some areas (but by sacrificing others), yet where WiiU was "not good enough" in 2013, Switch is somehow top tier in 2024. Just marketing and perception.

If Xbox launches their next gen system in 2026 while only having a current gen series console on the market for five years and then PlayStation launchs ps5 pro (not a next gen system) then Nintendo launches switch 2 this will only mean one thing.

We're going to have an even longer cross gen period with barely any real world maxing out of the nextbox 26

It's 2024 and we're still seeing games ship for last gen systems and I don't feel any need to update my current gen console yet and we're here talking about a next gen Xbox it's a bit of a joke to be honest