Analysts Predict Xbox's Activision Blizzard Deal Will Close Soon, Despite UK Objections

The drama will continue throughout this year and into 2024.

I personally think it will go through. If the "behavioral remedies" (promise to keep CoD multi-plat) does not seem as enough, I can see a potential middle ground where they create an independent mini-publisher that has the exclusive rights to publish console CoD games (not the phone game) on any platform they want, even potentially taking specific port development to third-party port specialist studios.

That is as far as I can see a structural solution going that Xbox would agree to.

As for closure, I expect it to close by July. Might be earlier but I am not holding my breath.

will go through with concessions.

probably take to the latter half of the year for all the back and forth between the 3 regulators

It will go through, just a matter of when. I am thinking by July.

The moment I hear Patcher I know its all wrong. That guy has not predicted anything correctly ever that I can remember, its astonishing he has a job.

@Titntin You know, it's funny, I didn't even see who the analysis was from, but the whole analysis just struck me as odd, and completely detached from any way of viewing the document. I saw gi.biz and just figured it was some dudebro games "journalist" having a moment.

It wasn't until I read your post I realized it was Patcher! LOL, no wonder. If Patcher predicted that Patcher would make predictions, I wouldn't believe him.

MS has offered a 10yr contract to keep CoD on PS as well as bring it to more 'Platforms' inc the 'biggest' selling current console, the Switch.

At the moment, CoD screws over PC/Xbox customers with 'less' content and delayed access and Switch gamers miss out entirely so the deal 'benefits' these gamers who will now get 'Parity' with Playstation. Playstation gamers may 'miss out' on 'extra content' and 'earlier' access, but they get the SAME content at the SAME time and SAME price. So it benefits far more consumers and would make CoD available to a much larger range of Consumers - all those Switch gamers, the Cloud gamers etc and doesn't 'harm' Sony's customers as they can still buy CoD on their Platform...

I can't see PS customers spending $500 on a Series X, spending $180 a year on GPU (as they need 'Gold' too), just to Play CoD via Game Pass instead of paying $70 as they always have to get the 'SAME' premium experience they are accustomed too.

Cloud may well be 'cheaper' at $10 a month, but limited to 1080/60 with 'more' input Lag - not 'ideal' for competitive CoD gamers even if good enough for 'Casuals'. Series S may be 'cheaper', but still not going to 'match' PS5.

I bought my Playstations, having owned EVERY PS generation console, for Sony's 'Exclusives' like Uncharted, Last of Us, Ghost of Tsushima, Horizon, Spider-Man etc - AWARD winning Exclusives I can ONLY play on Playstation. I would buy a PS6 for Playstation exclusives too - They 'could' make Destiny a Playstation Exclusive to rival CoD.

The CMA, EU and FTC would all have to provide PROOF that the deal WILL harm gamers in the Long Term - not create some 'hypothetical' future scenario when we 'consumers' are supposed to all give up 'Premium' Hardware for 'Premium' gaming experiences for 'Streaming' and CoD being 'exclusive' to MS's Service.

MS has stated they are 'willing' to release CoD on ALL platforms and offered '10' yrs to cover the rest of this 'generation' and the 'next'. If Sony release a PS7, I bet MS would release CoD on that too.

As stated, from a Consumer perspective, CoD would actually be 'fairer', more accessible and not screw over the 'majority' of the CoD community of gamers as it does NOW. PS has 'extra' so Xbox/PC miss out on 'some' content, Switch misses out entirely and all those who can't 'afford' a new gen console too 'miss' out so this deal would Benefit the Community. PS may not get 'extra' content, but they won't get 'Less', they won't be left waiting either so its much 'fairer' for ALL!!!

I like how Crash Bandicoot was chosen for this article. Because to me, that’s where my optimism about this deal has been since the beginning. Simply put, under the current A-B model, we’re not getting Crash, Tony Hawk, Spyro, etc. for a long time, if ever. With a MS purchase, there’s hope (with the gamepass model) that we see these titles return.

@Kaloudz replace thousands of mobile devices with millions if not billions. Just need a good WiFi or cellular connection. A fact as you say the CMA ignored or didn't understand.

What a bunch of dorks. This is just a game to CMA and FTC...

@themightyant My thoughts exactly. The deal will go through. CoD will just be a special case. Tbh, I don't think Sony really cares about the rest except for CoD.

It's up to Microsoft now. They have the EU and UKs concerns, now it's all on them to come up with an agreement that suits the EU and CMA, whether that's structural or behavioural. If they do that, they can present the concessions to the FTC and close in the summer. Or they could close anyway without the FTC, as I think they have mentioned. Fail to reach an agreement with the eu/cma before the end of April and it's pretty much dead in my opinion. But I could be wrong

As far as 'Competition' is concerned - Sony 'competes' with their Exclusives, their controller, their 'ecosystem'. Its already leading the Consoles sales over Series consoles, and has a much better track record of AWARD winning Studio's creating award winning games. The PS3 'competed' with the 'better designed' 360 that had CoD marketing for all its time, helping Establish CoD as the 'juggernaut' it became - dropping off with Ghosts and the Advanced Movement era - which is when Sony took over Marketing.

Games like Uncharted, Last of Us, Gran Turismo, Infamous, Killzone, Resistance etc all helped Sony recover from their over-expensive Launch issues and catch-up with 360 which also had a year head start.

Sony is pulling further and further ahead - it has more PS+ Subscribers, more consoles out there, more Exclusives etc and the FTC, EU and CMA are not meant to 'Protect' their position, but to protect the Customer and as this 'benefits' consumers, not just Xbox/PC gamers who will actually get 'Parity' at last with the rest of the CoD community, but also allow 'more' gamers to play.

Cloud may well be 'cheap' but its an 'Entry' point - 1080/60 with slightly more input lag - not 'ideal' for Competitive CoD gamers but great for Casuals and those on a tight budget. Series S is a 'bit' better at 1440p or 120fps options - but PS5/Series X will have 'Parity' as the 'Premium' Console experience with best Visuals/performance. PC maybe the 'best' option but costs the most. Competitive CoD gamers will buy Premium consoles to get the Premium experience.

Why would people abandon their 'preferred' platform, their preferred controller, friends, access to favourite 'exclusive' franchises etc just to play CoD at the SAME quality, same content, same Price to 'buy' etc just because they 'could' get it via Game Pass too. If you want to play Spider-Man 2, Horizon, God of War, GT7, R&C, Returnal etc and CoD, you'll buy a PS. I don't see PS5 customers abandoning PS5 to play MLB, Plague Tale, Atomic Heart, Minecraft etc just because they 'could' play on Game Pass instead of buying on their 'preferred' platform...

While I'm hopeful that the deal goes through, pinning hopes on Michael Pachter is far from a winning bet; bloke's been wrong almost as often as he's been right.

@xMightyMatt14x
But we got a new Crash 2 years ago and a new this year.
We got Tony hawk 1-2 remasters last year.

Rumours is that a new Spyro is coming.

So your take is wrong on these games.

@Kaloudz I know it's like that on iOS due to Apples stupid rules, I'm not sure if Sony allow cloud streaming on its browser. You can access the Nvidia streaming service on the Xbox Edge browser, so Sony had Nvidia block all of Sony's games from being streamed on the console. Sad isn't it.

As a rule I never listen to Michael Pachter.

@Neverwild the developer of THPS 1+2 remasters "Vicarious Visions" (which released in 2020 btw not last year) has been officially folded into the Call of Duty machine.
Whilst there have been a couple of remasters and a new Crash, the restructuring of Activision over the last couple of years mean that any new games we get that are "non COD" were already in the pipeline before the reorganisation. For proof of the damage Activision do to creativity, just look to Raven Software who haven't made a new game in over a decade.

@xMightyMatt14x I am hoping they can somehow renegotiate the licensing for older IP games (Transformers War for Cybertron trology, the 007 games, older Spiderman games) so they can bring them back to Steam, add them to Game Pass PC, and maybe even get ports of the PC versions for Series S|X.

Call of Duty is currently on playstation, xbox and PC.

After the deal Call of Duty will be on playstation, xbox, pc, and Switch (or successor).

How is this bad for gamers?

@Somebody They have advised why in their report, you might wish to read it. Countrary to the discussion about COD, they appear to have just as much concern about competition in the growing streaming space, which is the first concern they mention.

Not saying I agree with their position, but if it is to be discussed rationally, then people should understand it properly rather than throwing their toys out of the pram as if the regulatory bodies in the US, UK and Europe are all Sony shills.
There are other bodies that object too, such as https://www.openmarketsinstitute.org/publications/open-markets-weighs-in-on-latest-in-microsofts-acquisition-of-activision-blizzard?s=09

These people are highlighting issues they believe arise as a result of this unprecedented aquisition. They are not involved in fanboi flame wars.

The more I see desperate and obviously weird comments like from that xbox exec yesterday, and now Bobby Koteck himself spouting nonsense trying to get his golden parachute, the more I begin to question my own feelings.
I dont want to be on the side of Bobby about anything....

I still think it's going through. They already made concessions that aren't in these findings like the CMA mentioned. They might need a few more small ones but basically a legally binding 10 year contract to keep it everywhere with content and date parity is massive. I would love that May date bit I'm thinking it's June as originally planned.

@Titntin @NEStalgia PAC Man as i call him, is on the case. I still see the deal getting done. Sure it’s going to have eyes all over it. It’s the largest deal in gaming history by far. It’s not every day a company this size is up for sale. But this deal will close in a few month or so and thankfully we can get to GP news and not FTC this and FTC that.

@Titntin There is no unbiased player posting opinions on this one way or the other. Open Markets Institute is very well known for their Big Tech Busting agenda. I don't entirely disagree with them, but like most similar think tanks, they tend to always default to the same mindset: "Big Business? then NO".

the reason why analysts say it'll close by May 2023 is because the CMA is the hardest and most stubborn regulator and their decision is gonna be in April, once the CMA approves the deal the rest will follow, EU has same views as CMA, the FTC is a nobody, by looking at the provisional findings the CMA looks ready to accept remedies from Microsoft, they chose to offer remedies instead of blocking the deal altogether, great great news for Xbox. CMA will approve the deal, New Zealand will be the first to follow then the EU and after that nobody will care about the FTC. Microsoft has a nuclear bomb called "the federal court" and FTC really doesn't wanna push Microsoft into using it

@Tharsman Your quite right, stopping huge multi nationals getting bigger is pretty much why they exsist. But they have a view and voice thats worth hearing too, if you want to consider all positions! I wouldnt be swayed by their arguments though😁

I just can't wait for the for the people trying to block this to stop whining. It's not a good look. I've already cancelled Sony. Now I'm just laughing.

Will be glad when this is all over and goes through. Then we can get moving forward.

Will be happy with Blizzard only. And after 2025 a marketing deal for 25 years with Activision for Call of Duty

@Titntin can you name any activision/blizzard game currently available in any streaming service? If their goal is to keep a good service from being better so companies like sony can continue to treat their service as an afterthought, I again ask how is this deal bad for gamers?

@Robocrop_Duster Honestly, facts.

@Somebody Your argument is with them mate, not me. I know fk all about streaming and im not proffessing to! I always have a foot in all camps, cant stand fanboi nonsence.
If I have to express a preference im a little torn. Part of me wants to resist ever greater consolidation I cant deny. But I also wish to see that group under more benign leadership where devs are respected more. I currently won't play or buy any of their games at present as a personnel choice, but I'll be all over the next Diablo if MS take over. For the above reasons, on balance, I'd rather the deal goes through, and I think it will eventually.

As far as CoD is concerned, MS want to Publish on as MANY Platforms as they can - NOT just PC/XBox and/or PS5. It has a big active community they want to grow and don't want to 'annoy' half because of their choice of Platform.

They want 'CoD' to be Playable to FAR more Gamers and with 'PARITY' across the board 'Guaranteed', its 'very' difficult to PROVE it would HARM consumers. Where People want to PLAY CoD, MS want to make it AVAILABLE somehow - even if it just costs $10 a month for the 'entry' level experience, People will pay for 'Hardware' if it offers tangible benefits - Like better image quality, higher frame rates, lower input lag...

CoD won't be a 'Factor' in the decision as the game will release on EVERY platform. You'll still NEED a Playstation to Play Playstation Exclusives!!!! So maybe you 'prefer' to Buy CoD every time to 'keep' it if you ever want to return in the future, Console choice won't matter as far as CoD is concerned - just like Minecraft won't be a consideration despite MS owning that...

@pip_muzz Vicarious Visions was merged with blizzard, so they aren’t working on working on cod

@Titntin thanks for replying i guess....not sure why we went through any of that if you don't have an opinion.

I'm voting 2024, because all opposing parties will drag this out rather than be wrong or get in trouble for being in the wrong.

Jim Ryan: "And...and..and Nintendo (sniffles) won't share Mariooo with Sony! (Sniffles) It's not fair!"

@Scummbuddy LMAO it actually wouldn't surprise me if Jim Ryan suddenly started going after Nintendo and trying to get regulators to cancel them over their games being exclusive to their platform. The clown literally thinks he can just bully everyone into supporting his platform, and seems to think everyone should be obligated to have their games on Playstation.

Everyone goes on about Cod.

There's are 4 big elephants in the room which are Diablo, WoW, Overwatch and Starcraft.

Biggest looter, once biggest online rpg, top 5 online shooter and biggest RTS. Weirdly I'm not a fan of any of them but loads of people are.

@Neverwild clearly you’re not up to date on what’s been happening at Activision lately. Yes we got a new Crash. But in April 2021 it was announced Toys for Bob (who made Crash 4) would now be a support studio for Call of Duty Warzone. Also, Vicaious Visions (who made TH 1+2) was disbanded and folded into Blizzard, along with the rumored TH 3+4 being cancelled. The rumored Spyro game would have been made by Toys for Bob and has been shot down by insiders. So actually my take on Activision is pretty correct. The studios that had been involved in the resurgence of those series were folded into Call of Duty support and Blizzard support. There’s no A-B studio available to make them as they are all support now for the big games. That’s the direction A-B has been heading to sustain COD. As @pip_muzz said, Raven is another example of how non COD Ips have faded recently under Activision.

With MS there’s a chance COD gets spread out and the other studios get freed up to return to projects like Crash and Spyro.

This is from Patcher 😂😂 the guy who should be at least half right some of the time but is never right 100% of the time lol.

This deal will go through but with major concessions that will hopefully be for the benefit of gamers as a whole. That is what all of this should be about, gamers as a whole and not about who is better than the other. This deal will not close while there is issues with any governing body not unless Acti/Microsoft want to say good bye to those $$$ which they obviously won't want to do.

I agree.Sony is doing what they claim Microsoft is doing.Unlike Sony fans I alway Try to support anything that is closest to American made and owned.I will never support a foreign company over an American company.people in Japan support their country and companies unlike young people today in America who thinks communism is better than capitalism

@Shepherd_Tallon I know mate, I usually try and avoid the conversation as some will accuse you of all sorts simply for seeing the grey areas. My own fault for posting I guess, but every now and then I forget that rational discussion is not always welcomed by all, and I guess thats fine, its an xbox site and many people are very passionate about their machine of choice, as they are entitled to be. 😁
Treading on eggshells is the appropriate phrase here. Far simpler to not engage..

I hope so just so we can stop hearing about it. I really enjoy this site but a bit less so recently as the front page is flooded with articles about the takeover (2 of the top 5 articles are about it). I appreciate that they are covering an important deal for Xbox but very few of them actually have any substance and it feels like we are reading the same thing with one or two new quotes each time.

They always seem to have a lot of comments however so I imagine engagement is pretty high. Just a bit fed up of hearing about it.